Ominous Omen

I went to college a bunch of times.  Why is a subject for another missive.  But as a result, and the particular major I pursued, I took several statistics courses.  Not being a math whiz, I was terrified at the prospect each and every time.  But fear and desperation can combine to be great motivators.  Because I was aware of my shortcomings in the mathematical sciences, I applied a level of focus and effort far beyond my wont.  And to my surprise, I learned something.

Okay, you can stop worrying now.  This is not going to be a treatise on statistical methodology.  I will leave you with just one piece of relevant statistical truth and it doesn’t involve numbers.  If one can measure the history of an event, one can predict the likelihood of future occurrences with a known level of confidence.

A discussion of just how much confidence would require a dissertation on statistical methods and you don’t really want that.  It is the concept here that I am trying share, not the mechanics.  You don’t have to know just how an internal combustion engine works to believe that your car will get you to the store.

Now to the point:  I get a lot of junk mail.  Not spam, real honest-to-goodness snail-mail, postal-service delivered crap right to my mail box.  It is probably quite similar to what you receive; grocery store mailers, real estate solicitations, discounted home remodeling offers.  I usually deposit them directly into the recycling bin without carrying them across the threshold.  But once in a while, I get something that just defies nonchalance.  Such a delivery occurred this week.

Let me recall you to the opening remarks about statistics and their analysis.  Like no other industry, insurance companies employ armies of mathematical analysts to predict future outcomes based on historical data.  They are the most important cogs in the insurance industry wheel as their work output is the foundation for premium pricing on issued policies.  And they have to be accurate.  If an insurance company prices premiums too high, they will lose business to competitors.  If they price their policies too low, they will not collect enough revenue to cover claims, operations and profit to remain in business.

These heroes of the insurance game are Actuaries.  And they live in a world of statistical analysis so advanced that it has its own moniker, Actuarial Science.  They take their jobs very seriously; as do their employers; as do governmental oversight agencies (e.g. Insurance Commissions).  So seriously, in fact, that they must be certified through testing, just like a CPA or an Attorney.  I’m sure you’ve heard jokes about how dull accountants are.  Well, we make fun of actuaries.  But I digress.

Let me now tie junk mail and statistical forecasting together.

This week, I received an offer from the Trident Society.  Yeah, I’d never heard of them either and that helped spark my curiosity enough to open the envelope.  It was a nice piece of stationary resembling in size and design an invitation, such as to a wedding or baby shower (we’ll talk about the relative merits of prenatal hygiene at a later date).  Much to my bemusement, the content was an offer was for pre-paid cremation services.  I had to wonder, “Do they know something I don’t?”

Now if this solicitation had been addressed to “occupant” or “postal patron” I would have dismissed it as mere chance.  But it was addressed specifically to me right down to the zip-code +4.  Someone has targeted me as a likely customer for future cremation services and I want to know how they came up with my name.

As incentive to sign up for a sales pitch, they offer to enter my name in a contest to be selected as their pre-paid cremation winner of the month.  This produces a quandary.  I never win anything by random chance.  So, if I sign up does that ensure I won’t be needing their services?  Or, if I don’t sign up, will I die before I have a chance to make arrangements for their services; thereby deferring the onus of these decisions to the executor of my estate?