Katrina, Katrina

According to the headlines I read this week, it is the tenth anniversary of the devastating hurricane named Katrina.  I am catching bits and pieces of the dialogue on TV news evoking memories of the hellacious destruction rent by that storm.  I remember the death and devastation reported from the Crescent.  For God’s sake, the New Orleans Saints had to play their home games in Houston!  Or was it San Antonio?  I forget.  But as much as Texans love football, they were praying for rain. I think the memory that stayed with me most though, was that of the climate pundits who warned that this was just a harbinger of things to come.

Another scandal, I recall, was the loss of life at nursing homes for the elderly.  Apparently the surging waters made it impossible to evacuate those most vulnerable of citizens.  No, wait a minute.  I think the staff members of those affected facilities were mostly indicted for not taking appropriate care and action to safeguard their charges.  What was that word:  Abandonment?

Katrina was marking the beginning of the end.  Sea levels would rise and within a few years our coastal cities would be underwater.  Killer storms would attack with a ferocity and frequency never before seen in history or as recorded in the geologic record.  A watery doom was knocking at our door. I’m waiting.  I’ve got my life jacket in the garage. (I take this stuff seriously, even though I live at an elevation of 1,700 ft.)

The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers was vilified for its lack of foresight and failure to prepare the levy system for what seems, ten years later, an anomalous event.  But not to worry, the government has spent uncounted billions on preparing the Mississippi for the next storm of Katrina like proportions.  It may be a decade, or century, or millennium before we find out just how well the improvements perform.  Our emergency services motto has become, “For the Worst Case Scenario!”  (‘cause the Feds will borrow money to pay for it).

Well, as with most predictions related to the threat of global warming (I guess the scientists have agreed to stop using that language and have shifted instead to “extreme climate change”) I’m still waiting.  Hell, I’m still waiting for the next ice age they predicted on Earth Day 1970!  As I recall we had an outdoor assembly for the purpose of inculcating us into the green fold.  And what I remember of that day’s weather was the fear-driven chill I felt as the sweat rolled off my forehead into my eyes.

I spend much of my TV time allotment watching educational programming.  My favorite subject is astronomy (cosmology, astrophysics, etc.).  And most recently, there have been many shows devoted to the future viability of Earth as a life friendly biosphere.  And it’s not.  Between the constant increase in energy output from the Sun, which is the single most critical element affecting our terrestrial weather, and the weakening of our magnetosphere, which keeps the solar wind from glowing away our atmosphere (the air we breathe, no matter what the temperature is), we’re pretty much screwed survival wise.  So, yeah; I’m running my air conditioner at full speed this evening, carbon footprint be damned!

If you are wondering, “Dale, where is your usual humorous bent?  Where is the funny we’re so used to?”  Sorry, the subject matter just doesn’t support it this week.

Poop!

Yeah, you read it right.  Poop!  No, not Pooh; that’s a fictional character that has trouble dressing himself (if you don’t understand that allusion, e-mail me and I’ll explain it).

I engaged a young acquaintance of mine in conversation regarding her recent vacation.  As the sojourn was of a wilderness bent, I asked her, in hopes of generating some shock humor, if she had carried out her poop.

For the non-rustics out there, primitive camping (among other things) translates to no restroom facilities.  In my backpacking days, to answer the call to nature one dropped their backpack, grabbed their roll of toilet paper and hiked off of the trail.  Hidden behind some sort of vegetation for modesty’s sake, a hole was dug, pants were lowered, the squat position was assumed and there you go (literally).  The hiker buried the evidence as best they could and returned to the trail to continue the day’s trek.

Sometime after my retirement from backpacking, the rules were changed.  The official authority now requires that stool be packed out.  It seems that the increased interest in outdoor communion pushed the ecosystem beyond its capacity to integrate the human contribution into the soil in an efficient manner.  Testing of meadows and such demonstrated that human digestive bacteria was polluting the ground water and grazing leas.  Apparently, it is not to the deer population’s benefit to ingest feces tainted grass.

I will not share the answer that my question generated.  But I was surprised, taken aback really, that this question caused absolutely no anxiety; no nervous titter, no embarrassed blush.  In fact, we proceeded to have quite an in depth discussion of human evacuation practices and experience.  You just have to love the Millenials!

It seems that the heirs apparent to human culture skipped over the lessons on polite discourse and in so doing are rather uninhibited regarding most topics.  I am starting to understand the tattoos and body piercings.  I don’t particularly care for them, but I think I’m getting it.  Somewhere along the way, as we progressed form Boomers to X-gens to Y-gens to Millenials, the veneer of shame was stripped away and inhibitions disappeared.  The hippies of my youth (all burned out dope smokers now) were rank amateurs by comparison.

Let me make my point completely clear.  I am not criticizing the generation poised to rule the world in the coming twenty years.  Quite to the contrary, I applaud their sense of freedom.  Perhaps, with some of the walls of propriety breached, they will find the harmonies necessary for peaceful coexistence that have eluded us.  Or, maybe we won’t.

At any rate, I’m not going to live that much longer so if it turns out they chose the wrong path, I won’t be too much inconvenienced.  In the meantime, Millenials, I salute you: Just as long as you don’t poop on my grave.

   

Perseid Meteor Shower 2015

As you read this Thursday (Aug. 13, 2015) you will be saddened to learn that last night, between 11:00 PM and 4:00 AM this morning was the optimal viewing time for this year’s iteration of the Perseid meteor shower.  And this is supposed to be a banner year as the event is occurring during a new moon (not visible).  I guess that will teach you to rely on me for all things scientific.  But don’t despair; you should be able to experience a relatively satisfying observation tonight during the same time window.

Comet Swift-Tuttle

“So what causes a meteor shower?” you ask.  Well, as we perceive it, it seems like dozens, or hundreds depending on conditions, of little lights are falling from the sky.  In reality, the Earth, in its normal orbital trip around the Sun, is barging through a debris field of very small remnants of material blown off of a comet as it made its way around on its own orbital path.  In the case of the Perseid shower, the debris is from the comet Swift-Tuttle.  Swift-Tuttle was discovered independently by Lewis Swift and Horace Tuttle in 1862.  It was last close enough to Earth to be visible in 1992 (I saw it.  Did you?).  As the comet nears the Sun (one orbit takes 133 years) the solar wind heats the ice enough that some of it melts and is left as a trail in the orbital path.

Every year, in its normal orbit around the Sun, the Earth crosses the Swift-Tuttle’s debris trail and the collisions between the Earth’s atmosphere and the tiny little pieces of ice (and perhaps some minerals) light up as “shooting stars” as they burn up in our atmosphere.  It is really the Earth’s trespass into the comet’s debris field that causes the light show.  This happens independent of where the comet is in its orbit.

Although the peak viewing window was last night, you will still have an opportunity to witness a fairly good show, weather conditions allowing, Thursday night/Friday morning. While you can see the meteors in any quadrant of the sky, the direction from which most will emanate is north.  The shower is named “Perseid” as it is the Perseus constellation from which they seem to be radiating.  But remember, we are running into them.  You needn’t focus solely on the radiant (apparent source) as the distribution of occurrences will be somewhat random across the sky.  The only danger is if you get dizzy form looking up and fall down.

The highest concentration of meteors will once again be between midnight and 4:00 AM.  If you have trouble finding these “shooting stars”, feel free to not call me.  I am unplugging my phone when I go to bed.

PS  The weather did not cooperate overnight, thus I saw no shooting stars... alas.  Hope you have better luck tonight.

Vegetarian and other Isms

ism [iz-uh m] n.  a distinctive doctrine, theory, system, or practice: This is the age of isms.

Vegetarianism-a lifestyle choice which eschews the eating of animal flesh.  In the extreme, also excluding all commodities containing animal sourced materials.  From an economic standpoint, this relieves price pressures on meat food products correspondent to the reduced demand.  More affordable hamburgers (pork chops, carne asada, etc.) for the rest of us.  The most common motives for this practice are improved health and/or ethical belief that cows (cats, dogs, chickens, zooplankton, etc.) are people too.  Dale’s advice:  Never trust a fat vegetarian.

Socialism-a political/economic system which emphasizes state ownership of the means of production and justifies subordination of the individual to the community, but often through democratic means.  Proponents have often experienced repeated failure within a free-market, competitive environment. This system is most frequently characterized by the redistribution of income/wealth through political means (i.e., taxes).  Dale’s advice: Conduct as much commerce as possible using hard cash.

Communism-the political theory that the individual’s actions should benefit the community or the state rather than the individual.  The system is most frequently characterized by the redistribution of everything to the ruling elite (unanimously elected, so they tell us) by the use of force (i.e., tanks). It is unclear how the system justifies its efficacy without looking to the condition of the individual (which it hasn’t) who has so graciously surrendered all control for his life to the party.  Dale’s advice: Don’t wait until the last minute, buy your guns (and associated accoutrements) before it’s too late.

Darwinism-the biology theory that all living things have descended from earlier common ancestors through processes of evolution such as natural selection.  The strongest evidence offered is the milestone transition from ape to man when proto-humans transitioned from arboreal to terran existence by literally lowering themselves out of the family tree.  The strongest argument against natural selection and survival of the fittest is an examination of the fans attending a NASCAR event.  Dale’s advice:  Don’t let your chimpanzee drive the family car.

Magnetism-the theory that oppositely charged particles are attracted to each other while similarly charged particles are repelled by each other.  Long story short; this is an argument against marriage.  Think about it… then if you are still confused, e-mail me and I’ll explain it to you.

Barbarism-the belief that marauding hordes (e.g., Mongols) spread their seed among the conquered societies therefore affecting the genetic progression of human development increasing to some degree the homogeneousness of the geographical mix.  So named barbarism for Aunt Barbara who staunchly believes she is a descendent of Genghis Khan’s jovial half-brother, Bubulla Khan (not to be confused by the featured dancer at Rowdy’s Gentlemen’s Club, Boob ala Khan).

Criticism-you stink!

Skepticism-a human reasoning faculty that allows one the ability to test reported information from a questionable source against logic.  But I don’t think it works (e.g., state of the world!)

Attack of the Robots... or

If you guessed the “or” would lead to Economics for Mechanical Men; congratulations, you are getting some sense of the way my brain works.  Now don’t you wish you had stopped reading this drivel after the first post way back in February of 2013?  But I digress.

Stephen Hawking

If you follow the news, then you were most probably exposed to the story; “more than 1,000 tech experts, scientists and researchers (a rather broad category… I wonder if these esteemed thinkers are the same ones who have been driving up my cost of living in the name of green energy) have written a letter warning about the dangers of autonomous weapons.”  I am not sure to whom this letter is addressed.  Some of the most noteworthy participants were Elon Musk (founder of SpaceX and Tesla Electric Automobiles), Steve Wozniak (surviving member of the duo who created Apple Computer), and world renown physicist Stephen Hawking (whom, I am almost convinced at this stage of his existence may be more mechanical than human… oh, c’mon, anybody who does voiceovers with a speech synthesizer for The Simpsons has got to have a sense of humor about his own lot in life).  Perhaps I’m missing something, but it seems these go-getters should more properly be the recipients of letters warning about the run-away locomotive that is modern technology rather than the authors.  I know I don’t have the technological savvy to build a killer robot in my garage.

But apparently, these forward thinkers believe it would be poor judgment on mankind’s part to create military hardware that was self aware and capable of learning through the trial and error process.  Artificial intelligence, they say, should not be bestowed upon the physically invincible.  Although I’m not sure military hardware has ever even approached invincibility.  Have you seen the pictures of all the ruined combat vehicles littering the streets of the Middle East?  Standard maintenance alone accounts for more of the systems’ time and costs than does operational service.  And that does not include cost for repair from material failure and battle damage. 

But if you really do have night sweats over the possibility that a weapons system resembling a Doberman Pincer with no head is going to attack you without warning, then I have a suggestion or two.

Don’t give them any more capacity for decision making than a Marine PFC.  I do not wish to cast aspersions on the efficacy of the United States Marine Corps to successfully wage ware. Their record and reputation speak for themselves.   But one of the foundational principles of Marine Recruit training is to break down the individual’s penchant for analysis and decision making so that he will follow without question the orders of his superiors.  Solution:  Don’t let the autonomous weapons systems advance to the ranks of the NCOs.  Nobody wants to deal with all of the hydraulic fluid stains on the carpets at the NCO clubs anyway.

The common thread underlying all mobility is energy.  Unlike humans, robots cannot ingest carbon based calorie resources (food… do I have to explain all of this in detail?), rather they will be dependent upon humans to provide fuel.  Yes, just like our cars.  They will only go as far as the allotment of fuel (or battery charge) we allow them will support.  As technology has advanced, the duration of actual combat engagements has been reduced.  There is no need to apply an independent, endless energy source.  Don’t put solar panels on them.  We are most likely going to fight our future wars in the Middle East or Russia so there will be plenty of oil available anyway. Solution:  Let’s keep our automated war fighters on a diet of fossil fuels.  That way, purchasers of Mr. Musk’s wonder car will not suffer a shortage of solar silicon chips for the ubiquitous electric vehicle recharging stations they need to power their Teslas.  Going to be!

   Now, if these suggestions haven’t allayed your fears that metal crunching, pavement pulverizing robotic battle bots are going to come into your neighborhood and upset your daily routine, then consider this.  We as a race (or species, whatever it is) have survived ice ages, tectonic activity (earthquakes, for the third graders out there), sweeping forest fires, flood, drought and famine, all of which occur with no great amount of reasonable predictability, for two hundred thousand years, doesn’t it stand to reason we can survive a mechanized Armageddon at the hands of transformers?  For at least 10,000 years?  See last week’s blog (Whew is it Hot! conveniently located below) to understand this reference. 

I believe the deadline for nominations for next year’s Nobel prizes, either Peace or Economics, are looming, so don’t miss your chance to nominate your favorite pundit, me, before the clock runs out.  Thank you.

Whew... is it Hot!

It has been uncharacteristically cool this year here in Paradise (some people think Hawaii is Paradise, but those of us who live in San Diego, we know the truth), this last week however has been a bit of a boiler.  Note my choice of kitchen appliance here because it makes all the difference.  For you see, we South Westerners have been experiencing a bit of high humidity due to the proximity of Tropical Storm Dolores.  Just one more thing we would prefer Mexico keep on their side of the border, but I digress.  The temperatures haven’t really been that oppressive for the season but when you add in the humidity, it brews an atmospheric concoction to which we inhabitants of the Coastal-Desert conjunction are not accustomed.  It makes us sweaty and cranky; we get enough salt from our margarita consumption, thank you.

Then, to rub that extra salt into the wounds of stretched credibility, the National Centers (Do they really need more than one center?  I mean, isn’t the concept of centrality rather singular in and of itself?  Government confuses me.) for Environmental Information of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) this week reported that “globally averaged temperature over land and ocean surfaces for 2014 was the highest among all years since record keeping began in 1880.”  Let me digress for just a moment:  Do we all think the methods they used to record ocean temperatures in the nineteenth century even begin to yield data accurate enough to get excited about variances in the single degree range?  Think about a rum drunken sailor dipping a glass and mercury thermometer into the sea, and then studiously and accurately recording the information into a journal that eventually was turned over to a government agency.  Is that the same way we do it today?  Wait, I’ll bet today NOAA uses satellite mounted equipment that can measure surface temperatures to one one-hudredth of a degree and nobody has to get their sleeves wet while doing this on the deck of a rolling ship!  Sorry, I’ll get to the point momentarily.  The hot (no pun intended) news is that 2014 number shot through the 20^th century average by a startling 1.24^oF (0.69^oC).  Quick Myrtle, turn off the air conditioner!  Wait, I haven’t even used my air conditioner this year.  Hmm!

Returning now to scientific sobriety:  No phenomenon has more influence on Earth’s atmosphere than energy emitted by the Sun.  In fact, the Sun is more or less king of the realm when it comes to energy related stuff.  Some few scientists have been brave enough to suggest changes in temperature that we have recorded are caused by changes in the intensity of the Sun’s output.  But atmospheric scientists pooh-pooh this idea.  While they accede that the Sun does affect the climate on Earth, they minimize the effect when compared the influence of increased greenhouse gasses here on Terra Firma.  But then, how does one explain the increasing temperatures of the other planets in our little corner of the Milky Way as reported by astronomers?

  I viewed a program offering on The Science Channel (check your local listings) last night (that would be Tuesday, July 21 as this post was written Wednesday, July 22), How the Universe Works; the episode, “Earth: Venus’s Evil Twin”.  I will forgo the steamy (what, another unintended pun?) details, but the crux of the program was this.  From the day the Sun first ignited into the life, and death, giving star it is, it has steadily (albeit, slowly) increased its output for about four and one-half billion years.  And this from astronomers, not climate scientists who have a vested interest in creating a “sky is falling” environment rife with opportunities for funding endowments and possible world-wide capital shifts (remember Al Gore’s energy credits?).  The astronomers are largely ignored on this subject because they have nothing to gain by the knowledge.  “I see the train coming, there is nothing I can do to stop it, I might as well just keep watching as it’s the most interesting game in (academic) town.

So, what is the eventuality according to these star (well, and planet too) gazers.  The sun will continue to burn brighter and warmer throughout its life-cycle; which promises to be about another five billion years.  I have heard all of this before, but this program inserted a new twist.  While all other reports I have encountered concerning this science predicted that as the Sun runs out of energy, it will begin to grow from its middling rank among its brethren stars and become a red giant.  The growth may or may not be enough to engulf the orbit of the earth, thereby absorbing the mass of our home into the sun itself.  And if it doesn’t grow that large, it will certainly get close enough that the increased heat energy will turn our Earth into one big charcoal briquette.  Five billion years; who cares?  I don’t have any children. But one of the planetary scientists, (and a woman at that which just goes to reinforce her esteem in the scientific community), predicted that the rise in temperatures due to the Sun’s increased output would indeed begin to create a runaway greenhouse effect, but rather than CO₂ being the recalcitrant gas, it would be our precious water, boiled away into the atmosphere.  Temperatures would rise much more than one to two degrees per century.  The projection is as high as 1,000^o F.  And the weight of the atmosphere would increase from fifteen pounds per square inch to a steel crushing hundreds of pounds.  Our fragile life form would not survive such conditions.  And her timetable?  About 10,000 years (that’s only four hundred generations).  Maybe the climatologists can come up with a plan that involves straws for everyone and one big coordinated suck (to get rid of that pesky water…) I hate it when I have to explain the punch line:  Sigh!

The Dog Planet

There being so much folderol over the arrival of our space probe (yes, ours… we paid for it… you and me) reaching Pluto this week, how could one possibly think of writing about anything else?  If you are a regular reader you probably sense some little bit of annoyance on my part over this enormously important event.  But before I get into the meat of editorial sophism, let’s familiarize ourselves with the facts (if such distinction may be levied on Wikipedia).

Clyde W. Tombaugh

Pluto was discovered by Clyde W. Tombaugh on 18 February 1930 while he was employed for that very purpose at the Percival Lowell observatory at Flagstaff, Az.  I would argue “found” might be a better word than “discovered” as his endeavor was based on scientific hypothesis that the recently discovered planet Neptune (planet no. 8) could not account for all perturbations of the orbit of planet Uranus (planet no. 7) and therefore suggested the existence of a planet beyond Neptune termed “Planet X” (circa 1900).  Although why it wasn’t named Planet IX I couldn’t tell you.  (If you do not understand my confusion, send me an e-mail and I will explain it to you.)  At any rate, aforementioned Tombaugh was able to capture images of a very distant wanderer that was eventually dubbed “Pluto”.

Contrary to popular belief, the planet was named after the god of the underworld from Greek mythology, not the Disney Animation Studios dog.  No, not that dog; that was Goofy who was schtoopin’ Minnie behind Mickey’s back.  If none of this commentary about dogs and mice makes any sense, e-mail me and I’ll share the source joke with you.  The name was recommended by a ten-year old girl from Oxford, England who received £5 for her trouble.

Pluto’s mean distance from the Sun is 3.67 billion miles, or 39.5 astronomical units (AU).  One AU is Earth’s mean distance from the Sun, or 93 million miles. It took nine years for New Horizons to get there.  That’s nine years paying a bunch NASA scientists to sit at monitoring consoles in case a warning buzzer indicates a problem with the space craft, or a fuse has gone bad.  The average surface temperature on Pluto is 44 Kelvin (-229^o C, -380^o F).  By contrast, Earth’s average surface temperature is a sweltering 287 Kelvin (14^o C, 57^o F).  The orbital period of Pluto is 247.68 years.  Remember, the (now classified) dwarf planet was just found eighty-five years ago.  In the time we have been aware of it, Pluto has completed only one-third of one orbit.  Thanks to Dr. Sir Isaac Newton for the tools with which we make such determinations.

Pluto has five natural satellites (or moons), but the largest (Charon) boasts a diameter just under one-half that of Pluto itself, leading many scientists to assert that Pluto-Charon is a binary system.  The same may be true of Earth-Moon, where the Moon is one-sixth the size of Earth.

Pluto

Pluto resides in the Kuiper belt which is a field of icy, rocky bodies beyond the orbit of Neptune (mostly: Pluto’s orbit, e.g., carries it inside the orbital path of Neptune during portions of its circuit around the Sun) and may mark the edge of our Solar System.  Pluto, as I’m sure you know, was originally considered a planet of our solar system.  But with the discovery of at least two larger bodies populating the Kuiper belt, Pluto has been demoted to sub-planet status.  This change in status caused no little bit of moaning and whining here on Earth back in 2006; which bring me to the point.  Who cares?

 The reported cost of the New Horizons mission is estimated to be about $700 million.   I guess that doesn’t seem like much at only a bit more than two dollars per person living in the United States.  But I think it would go a long way towards repaving the streets I drive on!